BTC - Miners Capitulating?steemCreated with Sketch.

in bitcoin •  23 days ago 

Are miners to blame for the recent sell off?

BTC just can't seem to find any support and it seems to be getting worse.

Price is sitting near the lows of the day at $7,500 and not showing much of a bounce.

Per usual for the bitcoin market, there isn't an apparent reason for the slide other than possibly technical indicators.

One theory being floated out there has to do with miners capitulating.

That is where they are no longer able to mine bitcoin at a profit so they are 'forced' to sell everything they can in order to remain in the black.

The hope is that bitcoin will bounce back sharply and they will be able to remain in the game.

If it doesn't, they are the first ones to exit the mining game.

Is that really happening right now?

This hash rate ribbon seems to imply that it is.

When this ribbon inverts, it often signals that miners are capitulating:

(Source: https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1193899142529073152)

As you can see it is very close to inverting, and in fact likely has when factoring in today's action.

The last time this happened was November (ironically) of last year

And we all remember what happened back then!

It happened right before bitcoin plunged from $6k to $3k in a sudden violent washout to the downside.

It appears that may be setting up again now.

Though, I don't anticipate that kind of negative price action happening now, but we still may have some some room to the downside.

I look at $6k as being my line in the sand.

If prices break below there I would reconsider my long thesis.

However, I don't see that happening and look at this current dip as a great buying opportunity with the halving now roughly 5 months away.

Stay informed my friends.

-Doc

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Interesting analysis. First time I've heard of this correlation.

What ever the reason these random dumbs are annoying and will not help on board the masses.

They are pretty annoying aren't they. It seems basically since btc peaked in late 2017, we have gone down about 90% of the time with only a few brief moves up that eventually lost their luster. The price to pay from working off a move from sub $1k to $20k I guess... it just takes a long time.

I kinda think whatever whale orchestrated the short squeeze up past 10k is just selling it all back at a premium.

  ·  23 days ago (edited)

Yea, that very well could be. Prices ran up $3k in 24 hours, then gave it all back over the next 3-4 weeks. Pump and dump.

Like usually, it's just statistical anomaly... No matter what graph you look, there is always some random point when things finally reach equilibrium and then people start to panic even though it's just the most normal event in statistics.

You think we get to $6k?

Around $5800 would be my guess...

Chapped Bitcoin? Lovin’ it 😂

Posted using Partiko iOS

What do you mean?

Thanks.

I highly doubt BTC will make any massive moves in the near future. Its too early after the bubble for the dumb money to come in and i think people in general are getting more knowledgeable about Bitcoin in particular.
To be honest Bitcoiners arent really convincing anyone anymore in the viability of Bitcoin as a world currency and i dont think children would buy the "store of value" argument which is absolute nonsense.
I think that there is need to work on fundamentals at this time.

I cant be sure when it will happen but i expect Bitcoin to slowly start getting in the back seat and lose dominance. Its position isnt justified by adoption nor anything useful really and i dont think that will ever change.

  ·  23 days ago (edited)

That would be interesting if it were to play out like that. In my mind, bitcoin has basically grown up in a swamp, with other altcoins claiming better tech basically ever since it was created 10 years ago, yet here we are 10 years later and it's still the top dog. I actually do think a non-correlated, non-sovereign, immutable store of value that transcends borders has tremendous value in a well diversified portfolio. In fact that is my entire investing thesis. :)

That doesn't mean it will always be the most valuable though. I would imagine if Ethereum or some other fabric coin gets tons of things built on it (a la internet 3.0), it would make sense for that to have tremendous value, possibly more than something akin to digital gold.

Regarding your first comment, if these 4 year cycles are to play out yet again, we wouldn't expect to see a new high in bitcoin until late 2020 and then the peak of the cycle would be in late 2021. The market is a lot different now though, so we shall see.

better tech basically ever since it was created 10 years ago

It was never about better tech for me. It was about the transformative potential. None of those that directly compete with Bitcoin like Litecoin, XRP, Monero have a better chance to be massively adopted.
We reached a point when bitcoin is actually detrimental to the ecosystem. It brought on stagnation.

I actually do think a non-correlated, non-sovereign, immutable store of value that transcends borders has tremendous value in a well diversified portfolio. In fact that is my entire investing thesis. :)

I think Bitcoin is the farthest from it. A volatile asset like bitcoin is in no way a good store of value. It wasnt even created with that in mind. It was created as simply a p2p currency and it sucks as that as well.

While i dont have nearly the same negative opinion of ETH as i do of Bitcoin i dont think ETH has the fundamentals to take us into Web 3.0. Its too slow, annoying, the user experience is terrible, its bloated. But things are built on it so it has some potential..

My best bet is Steem. And im being honest here regardless of what the crypto pundits will say. Im not bullish on Steem in terms of price, im bullish on it due to its unlimited transformative potential.
Not a single crypto out there can do what Steem can nor achieve what Steem can. Its not even close.
If steem dies for any reason, crypto for me will become a garbage dump for gambling addicts with a lot of money to play in, when clearly project potential means little.

You are talking about things in absolutes as they are right now, though they won't always be that way. Gold, for example, was extremely volatile for a period of time as well when it first became widely traded by retail and Ethereum doesn't work for Web 3.0 right now, but they are working on that. The only constant is change. :)

Mining is already pushed to the max I agree but they have increased difficulty recently which means only one thing, we still have to many miners in the game. Perhaps they're trying to kill each other? But even this theory has it's own headscratcher...

My theory is that there was an unnatural pump and things are just returning to normal.

Could be. We just went below where it started from now though.

  ·  23 days ago Reveal Comment

Thanks.